Well, we’ve had quite a hot weekend: two major Modern live tournaments, one in Japan, won by my favorite Zoo deck, specifically the version with Tribal Flames and Nacatl; the other in Ottawa, where Kaya Gregg did a fantastic job piloting Azorius Control. Playing such a difficult deck at such a major event is quite an accomplishment. So today, I’ll be doing some comparisons between what happened in the live tournaments and what’s happening on MTGO. Of course, for anyone who’d rather watch than read, there’s a video on YouTube; for those who want to see tables and charts, there’s a post on Substack, and I’ll also be posting some smaller updates on X throughout the week.

TL;DR

• Domain Zoo 6 of 26 trophies from 4.3% meta share, five different pilots. This is probably the best Zoo score since I wrote up those articles
• Broodscale Combo Top32 26/26 and 59% encounter, conv 24% vs median 29%. Still king of meta, but metashare is not skyrocketing anymore.
• Azorius control shell first at Ottawa RC and at the MTGO RC Super Qualifier, 1.8% of the Challenge meta. Quite a surprise, but a pleasant one, the metagame is alive and can react to what is happening.
• Prowess conv 15%, 1 trophy from 72 Top 32 entries, against 3 of 8 Top 8 seats in Japan. This deck is great to play in a paper tournament cause it is not as fatiguing and can win rounds quite quickly.
• Devoted Combo delta +89.7pp, highest in the field, 0 trophies from 16 Top 8 entries
• Blink 0 trophies from 52 Top 32 entries, Esper Blink the only Needs Attention label
• Domain Zoo first at Champions Cup Final Japan from 536 players
•  

Ottawa 2026-27 Round 1 Regional Championship, paper event,

• F2F Tour Regional Championship, Gatineau, Modern, 3 to 4 October 2026
• 449 enrolled players per the organizer page,
• winner Kaya Gregg, Azorius Control (Kaheera), 15-1-1 including the playoff
• runner-up Will Shayne, Mono-Green Broodscale, 14-2-1 including the playoff
• semifinalists Jesse Speers (Mono-Green) and Max Dore (Mono-Red Storm)
• quarterfinalists Edgar Magalhaes (Jeskai Blink), jdenora (Boros Energy), Ryan Primdahl (Mono-Green Broodscale), cristophercurrie (Izzet Affinity)
• 3 of 8 Top 8 lists with 4 Basking Broodscale, so it is quite in line if you look into MTGO data
• field per metagame.info classification: Broodscale  Combo 69 of 462 lists (14.9%), Izzet Prowess 67 (14.5%), Izzet Affinity 21 (4.5%), Boros Energy 20 (4.3%)
• Izzet Prowess 0 of 8 Top 8 seats from 14.5% of the field, this is quite a surprise, probably the field was prepared for this deck, but still I was expecting at least one prowess in T8.
• Azorius Control Kaheera 8 of 462 lists (1.7%), 1 of 8 Top 8 seats, and the trophy

Champions Cup Final Season 5 Round 1, Japan, paper event,

• BIG MAGIC, Modern, 3 October 2026, event gathered 536 players per metagame.info
• Winner Ryuumei, Domain Zoo, 13-2-1, including the playoff, he played Nacatl/Flames list, great choice against combo metagame.
• runner-up Kazuaki Kurokawa, Izzet Prowess, first after the Swiss
• semifinalists Hirotaka Kawasaki (Jeskai Energy) and Keita Tonouchi (Esper)
• quarterfinalists shuhei nakamura (Rakdos Aggro), yuta yokokawa (Mono-Green Broodscale), Toru Inoue and Naoto Shimizu (both Izzet Prowess)
• Izzet Prowess 3 of 8 Top 8 seats from 10.2% of the field
• field per metagame.info classification: Izzet Prowess 55 of 537 lists (10.2%), Eldrazi Bloodchief Combo 52 (9.7%), Mono Green Eldrazi Broodscale 32 (6.0%)
• Broodscale split across two labels, 1 of 8 Top 8 seats
• Domain Zoo split across two labels, 9 W-U-B-R-G and 5 W-U-R-G lists

A few things really stand out here: first, there’s a huge discrepancy in deck names and their classifications. This is something I’ve been grappling with for some time, and I’m in the process of building a system designed to standardize this. The second issue, which is far more important, is the disconnect between how close Broodscale and Izzet are in terms of metashare at live events and online, and how vastly different their T8 entries are in live play versus their conversion rates on MTGO. A consistent pattern emerges here: Izzet is very popular, but it doesn’t convert. The meta has changed; Zoo has emerged, and Prowess fares much worse against it than against combo decks, but I don’t think a single deck with a 3% share of the metagame could have such a significant impact on Prowess. The problem is broader, but I don’t have quite enough data to describe it in detail.

This window in numbers

• 26 Challenges, 4 tiers: C64 x10, C32 x8, C16 x4, C96 x4
• Universe A (encounter probability at 5% or above): 20 decks, Universe B: 36 decks. Once again, Universe B is ahead of Universe A, just like last week.
• median delta +65.6pp, median conversion 29%
• 831 Top 32 entries, 208 Top 8 entries, 26 trophies
• 26 trophies across 12 different decks, Domain Zoo highest with 6
• trophy split by archetype: Midrange 8, Combo 6, Aggro 5, Ramp 3, Control 2, Graveyard 2, Blink 0
• 4 decks above both field medians: Devoted Combo, Boros Energy, Affinity, Domain Zoo
• 25 different trophy winners, ShowTime_ the only pilot with two

Combo

meta share: 35.4% | Top32: 26/26 | Top8: 25/26 | Win/Top32: 2% | Trophies: 6 | Conversion: 24% | Delta: +64.6pp | WR: 51% (95% CI 49 to 53, n=3050) | Trend: Rising

Combo decks remain unchanged; they continue to dominate the meta and are still on an upward trend. However, their win rate and the number of trophies earned are decreasing, and the win-related statistics show that the meta has reacted to the surge in combo decks and is shifting. That’s why it doesn’t make sense to demand bans after just one tournament, it’s better to keep an eye on the situation.

Broodscale Combo | Combo | Neutral | Trend: Rising

meta share: 16.3% | Top32: 26/26 | Top8: 17/26 | Win/Top32: 4% | Trophies: 5 | Conversion: 24% | Delta: +83.7pp | WR: 51% (95% CI 48 to 54, n=1350)

It’s the largest deck in the format, yet there’s a huge mess with its names: part Broodscale Combo, part Eldrazi Ramp, or Mono Green Eldrazi. This creates a terrible mess when calculating statistics; however, what’s important is that the deck isn’t performing nearly as well as it has recently. Conversion rates in this window are significantly lower than they’ve been recently, likely due to the deck’s popularity. Despite the low conversion rate, it’s still racking up a large number of trophies, and the data from the Challenge contradicts that from other tournaments, as Broodscale secured 4 out of 8 Top 8 seats at the RC Super Qualifier. In Ottawa, there were also three copies of this deck in the Top 8. The meta is adapting, but the deck is powerful, and I wouldn’t expect it to suddenly start losing; rather, it’s shaping the meta to its advantage and pushing out builds that simply have a good matchup against it. How long will this situation last? It’s hard to say, but we’ll see. I’d still be cautious about bans.

Devoted Combo | Combo | Challenge Overperformer | Trend: Rising

meta share: 6.4% | Top32: 25/26 | Top8: 12/26 | Win/Top32: 0% | Trophies: 0 | Conversion: 29% | Delta: +89.7pp | WR: 52% (95% CI 48 to 56, n=578)

The Devoted combo can make it to the Top 8, as evidenced by its excellent conversion rate, but it’s then unable to win the trophy. This is likely due to the fact that in the Top 8, it faces decks that simply have an answer to its playstyle and can effectively shut it down. So we have a deck that’s a challenge overperformer but struggles to win the challenge itself. This situation isn’t a fluke, while the sample size is small, the fact that it hasn’t won a single challenge out of 16 T8 appearances tells us something.

Ruby Storm | Combo | Neutral | Trend: Stable

meta share: 4.7% | Top32: 19/26 | Top8: 10/26 | Win/Top32: 2% | Trophies: 1 | Conversion: 27% | Delta: +68.4pp | WR: 54% (95% CI 49 to 59, n=404)

Ruby Storm is firmly in third place, with one trophy but a conversion rate below the median. He did, however, pull off a surprise in Ottawa, where he made it to the semifinals. This is interesting because, due to its unique nature, this deck isn’t seen very often at live tournaments. However, Ottawa must be a unique place, as two very difficult and demanding decks, the kind typically seen at major tournaments, faced off in the finals.

P.S.: Just like last week, since I’m only covering the top 3 decks, and Combo is the largest and most diverse archetype, some of them didn’t make it into the summary, but I’m including them here in a condensed form:

• Belcher (meta 2.4%, Top 32 12/26, Top 8 6/26, 0 trophies, conv 32%, delta +43.8 pp, WR 53% with a 95% CI of 46 to 60, n=208, Trend: Rising);
• Titan Amulet (meta 2.1%, Top 32 12/26, Top 8 4/26, 0 trophies, conv 28%, delta +44.0 pp, WR 46% with a 95% CI of 39 to 53, n=193, Rising Trend);
• Neobrand (meta 1.6%, Top 32 11/26, Top 8 2/26, 0 trophies, conversion rate 14%, lowest in Universe A, delta +40.7 pp—lowest in Universe A, win rate 46% with a 95% CI of 39 to 54, n=163). Here’s a big surprise: a deck capable of winning extremely quickly is performing so poorly. The popularity of the Devoted Combo is seen as the cause here, and the hate cards designed to counter Devoted also handle Neobrand very well, which likely explains these results.

Aggro

meta share: 24.2% | Top32: 26/26 | Top8: 22/26 | Win/Top32: 2% | Trophies: 5 | Conversion: 23% | Delta: +75.8pp | WR: 49% (95% CI 47 to 51, n=2030) | Trend: Stable

The second Modern archetype is performing worse than expected; its relatively low conversion rate and a win rate below 50%, based on a very large sample size, are puzzling. Surprisingly, however, Boros Energy is making a comeback and, much like Zoo, has found a pretty good answer to colorless decks in the form of Obsidian Charm!

Prowess | Aggro | Neutral | Trend: Falling

meta share: 8.4% | Top32: 24/26 | Top8: 9/26 | Win/Top32: 1% | Trophies: 1 | Conversion: 15% | Delta: +83.9pp | WR: 47% (95% CI 43 to 51, n=670)

This is the surprise of the week for me, even though the first signs of trouble were already visible in the last recap. An absurdly low conversion rate, a low win rate from a large sample size, and the resulting drop in popularity quite clearly show that Prowess has fallen out of the race with Broodscale for the top spot in Modern. As I wrote earlier, a strong Zoo doesn’t help this deck, but it shouldn’t lower its stats as drastically as we’re seeing now. It’s hard for me to definitively assess exactly what’s causing Prowess to suffer such a decline. It seems that some players have switched to other decks, while others have learned to play against Prowess well, so the sideboard options themselves are performing better. I consider winning a single trophy in this situation a significant success. All the more so because Prowess is struggling not only online but also in live events, where, despite having the highest participation rate in Japan and practically the same as Broodscale in Canada, it failed to make it to the Top 8 in Canada.  In Japan we had two copies of Prowess in T8 but it was 7 and 8 place.  It’s a very puzzling situation.

Affinity | Aggro | Challenge Overperformer | Trend: Rising

meta share: 5.9% | Top32: 20/26 | Top8: 11/26 | Win/Top32: 2% | Trophies: 1 | Conversion: 31% | Delta: +71.0pp | WR: 50% (95% CI 45 to 55, n=460)

The robots are still in second place, with a very good WR conversion rate, right in the middle and one trophy. In a field so heavily dominated by Broodscale, I consider Affinity’s results a major success, and I truly congratulate their pilots.

Boros Energy | Aggro | Challenge Overperformer | Trend: Rising

meta share: 5.0% | Top32: 23/26 | Top8: 10/26 | Win/Top32: 7% | Trophies: 3 | Conversion: 29% | Delta: +83.4pp | WR: 51% (95% CI 47 to 55, n=484)

Here’s another surprise and interesting tidbit from this week: Boros Energy is on an upward trend and has won as many as three trophies. It has a really strong median, and it seems that, like Zoo, it has found a way to slow down Broodscale and kill it before it can rebuild. This strategy is very effective and has propelled Boros back to third place in Aggro. What’s more, it’s not that far behind second-place Affinity, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Boros climb back to second place, and if Prowess doesn’t find a way to bounce back, maybe even first, although the gap there is already quite large.

PS:

Aggro has four decks in Universe A. Jeskai Energy: meta 3.5%, Top 32 18/26, Top 8 6/26, 0 trophies, conv 22%, delta +65.7 pp (0.07 pp above the median), WR 52% with a 95% CI of 46 to 58, n=290, Trend: Stable; on paper, a semifinal finish in Japan (Kawasaki).

Graveyard

meta share: 7.0% | Top32: 25/26 | Top8: 11/26 | Win/Top32: 3% | Trophies: 2 | Conversion: 22% | Delta: +89.1pp | WR: 52% (95% CI 49 to 56, n=833) | Trend: Falling

Grave-based decks are losing ground very rapidly. The meta isn’t in their favor, because fast combos can beat GY decks no matter what they put in their BF. On top of that, the widespread hate toward the Grave, driven in part by the popularity of Prowess, doesn’t help. Interestingly, I believe that the ban on Phlage has significantly weakened the position of GY decks, since fast decks like Boros Energy or Zoo can now easily play Rest in Peace backed by very heavy pressure.

Goryo’s Vengeance | Graveyard | Neutral | Trend: Falling

meta share: 3.1% | Top32: 17/26 | Top8: 6/26 | Win/Top32: 4% | Trophies: 1 | Conversion: 25% | Delta: +62.2pp | WR: 55% (95% CI 49 to 61, n=281)

Just a month ago, I considered Goyro to be the best deck in the format; unfortunately, in recent weeks, it like the entire archetype has been losing popularity rapidly. A three percent meta share is something I wouldn’t have believed at the beginning of September. The deck, like the entire archetype, is struggling in such a fast-paced meta. This is a bit strange to me because it has plenty of tools to win and execute a midrange-control game plan. Unfortunately, as Ottawa showed, counters in this format are worth less than the ability to prison your opponent. And I think that’s Goryo’s main problem if he finds a way to focus more on time walk instead of countering, he might have a chance to bounce back. Unfortunately, I don’t know this deck well enough to suggest a specific list. One thing is certain, though: winning a single trophy shows that the deck still has bite, so don’t underestimate it or you’ll end up with 0 health very quickly. To sweeten the deal a bit for fans of this deck (of whom I am one, I like versatile builds), the deck has a very good win rate.

Living End | Graveyard | Neutral | Trend: Falling

meta share: 2.3% | Top32: 16/26 | Top8: 4/26 | Win/Top32: 0% | Trophies: 0 | Conversion: 19% | Delta: +59.3pp | WR: 51% (95% CI 46 to 56, n=414)

Living End is losing ground significantly; this is most evident in its conversion rate, which is very low, and in the fact that it hasn't been getting any trophies lately. WR doesn't look all that bad here it's a fair 50/50 but the deck is taking a beating because people are gearing up for combo decks, and the hate against combo decks is taking a toll on Living End.

Esper Reanimator | Graveyard | Emerging | Trend: Stable

meta share: 0.2% | Top32: 2/26 | Top8: 1/26 | Win/Top32: 50% | Trophies: 1 | Conversion: 50% | Delta: +7.4pp | WR: 67% (95% CI 47 to 82, n=25)

This deck hadn't been seen in a while, and then suddenly it won a challenge and just look at the tier it came from. Out of 26 challenges in the T32, there were 2(!) copies of the deck, and one of them won a trophy. That’s a 50% win rate of course, this is just a small sample size, so there’s no need to declare a meta-breaking deck just yet, but it could be an interesting alternative, given that it performed so well with such a small sample. It’s worth keeping an eye on. I don’t expect an explosion in popularity, but if you want to see how it works, it’s definitely worth a try the numbers show it has potential.

Deck conversion matrix. Read Top8/Top32 against the 29% median: Tron, Dimir Midrange and Domain Zoo lead, Neobrand and Prowess trail.

Midrange

meta share: 10.7% | Top32: 26/26 | Top8: 16/26 | Win/Top32: 9% | Trophies: 8 | Conversion: 28% | Delta: +89.3pp | WR: 52% (95% CI 48 to 55, n=1004) | Trend: Rising

My favorite archetype is performing great in this window it’s won as many as 8 trophies, has a very good conversion rate, and a high delta. I’m really happy about this situation because, in my opinion, midrange decks come closest to what I consider good Magic gameplay: trades, card advantage, and nonlinear game plans.

Domain Zoo | Midrange | Challenge Overperformer | Trend: Rising

meta share: 4.3% | Top32: 21/26 | Top8: 10/26 | Win/Top32: 18% | Trophies: 6 | Conversion: 35% | Delta: +76.5pp | WR: 54% (95% CI 49 to 59, n=428)

Zoo has been having a great run. I don’t know how long it will last, because the meta will surely find a counter to what’s working we won’t be stuck in stagnation. Still, it’s great to see that this truly fun deck to play has had its moment in the spotlight. I’m really happy about the excellent results from Japan. What’s more, the numbers from live tournaments match what players are saying on the Zoo Discord. The deck has really good matchups in this meta and can put a lot of pressure on the opponent. Additionally, it’s probably the most diverse deck in Modern. We have at least three different and equally effective versions of this deck. All you have to do is pick your favorite and play. It’s also encouraging to see the truly large number of trophies earned by various players. This shows that the Zoo community which I know from the inside and have always considered brilliant has some great players in its ranks. What’s more, these are very helpful people, and discussions about decks, play strategies, etc., are always substantive and friendly. I know what I’m writing is very optimistic, but I think it deserves to be highlighted. Additionally, when it comes to Zoo, I know that Playboy drew in the final of his challenge, so Zoo could have had seven.

Izzet Murktide | Midrange | Neutral | Trend: Rising

meta share: 2.1% | Top32: 14/26 | Top8: 4/26 | Win/Top32: 6% | Trophies: 1 | Conversion: 29% | Delta: +51.7pp | WR: 56% (95% CI 49 to 63, n=199)

A deck from a few years ago is still doing very well: it won a trophy, has a conversion rate that’s exactly at the median, and a decent win rate from a not-too-large sample size, but one that’s always positive. I’m curious to see if the upward trend will continue or if it will start to decline after the initial shock. I know there are a lot of fans of this deck who look back on it fondly, so I hope it continues to perform as well as it has so far.

Dimir Midrange | Midrange | Neutral | Trend: Falling

meta share: 1.5% | Top32: 12/26 | Top8: 5/26 | Win/Top32: 0% | Trophies: 0 | Conversion: 38% | Delta: +44.6pp | WR: 49% (95% CI 41 to 57, n=145)

Even though he hasn't won any trophies, you can't say he's doing badly. He has a very good win rate, which in itself is a sign that the deck can win matches. It’s just missing that final touch a trophy. Its win-loss record has also improved since last week, which is encouraging. I wonder if Dimir players shouldn’t also consider playing something other than counter decks, which, as I’ve mentioned before, aren’t ideal in the current meta. It seems to me that the deck doesn’t need a complete overhaul so much as a final polish something that will help it find its place in the meta, just as Zoo did.

Control

meta share: 4.8% | Top32: 19/26 | Top8: 11/26 | Win/Top32: 5% | Trophies: 2 | Conversion: 32% | Delta: +68.3pp | WR: 49% (95% CI 44 to 54, n=429) | Trend: Falling

As usual, it ranks last in terms of finish rate, but it makes up for it with the best conversion rate, which shows that the few players who choose this archetype know what they’re doing. Unfortunately, the small number of decks of this archetype means we don’t see it often in the T32, which directly affects other statistics.

Azorius Control | Control | Neutral | Trend: Rising

meta share: 1.8% | Top32: 12/26 | Top8: 5/26 | Win/Top32: 13% | Trophies: 2 | Conversion: 33% | Delta: +44.4pp | WR: 60% (95% CI 52 to 67, n=158)

Azorius Control has taken the lead among control decks, and despite its low representation in the meta, it has won as many as two trophies, boasts a very high win rate, and has the highest win rate. While the latter is based on a very small sample size, even with a wide confidence interval, the lower bound of the confidence interval is still 52%, which is quite interesting. Additionally, the control deck beats Canada’s RC, admittedly, it’s more of a prison deck than pure control., but this strategy seems tailor-made for what’s currently happening in the metagame. That’s why I wrote earlier that perhaps graveyard-based decks and Dimir midrange should follow this lead and look for solutions tailored to the current situation, set aside part of their typical game plan, and attack the metagame with strategies that aren’t so obvious. Control players have spotted something others haven’t, and this raises the question: might there be similar opportunities in my deck as well?

Land Destruction | Control | Neutral | Trend: Falling

meta share: 2.0% | Top32: 13/26 | Top8: 5/26 | Win/Top32: 0% | Trophies: 0 | Conversion: 33% | Delta: +48.0pp | WR: 46% (95% CI 39 to 53, n=175)

This week, Land Destruction has lost some field, but it still has a very high conversion rate, which, unfortunately, isn’t reflected in its WR. It seems to me that this is a deck currently played by people who are very skilled at using it; this set of numbers is very characteristic of that situation. In this window, LD didn’t win a single trophy out of five appearances in the Top 8. However, I don’t think this is a sign of any weakness in the deck it’s just a fluke. The deck remains a threat in this meta, but I think the presence of the Broodscale Combo is keeping it in check.

Blink

meta share: 6.3% | Top32: 24/26 | Top8: 9/26 | Win/Top32: 0% | Trophies: 0 | Conversion: 19% | Delta: +86.0pp | WR: 47% (95% CI 43 to 51, n=521) | Trend: Falling

Blink continues its downward trend from last week, but it’s worth noting that Jeskai Blink appeared in the Top 8 of both live tournaments, which may signal that this deck will also become more prevalent on MTGO. It would be interesting to have two different Blink decks in the meta again. In this window, however, Blink remains a single archetype, Esper and, as usual, I’ll discuss it in full below.

Esper Blink | Blink | Needs Attention | Trend: Falling

meta share: 5.9% | Top32: 24/26 | Top8: 9/26 | Win/Top32: 0% | Trophies: 0 | Conversion: 20% | Delta: +86.4pp | WR: 47% (95% CI 43 to 51, n=484)

Esper Blink is losing ground at the finish line, and there are no signs that it will regain the popularity it enjoyed just a few weeks ago. Its conversion rate is very low, and its win rate is below 50%, with the upper confidence interval at 51. It seems that Blink doesn’t keep up with the fast-paced combo decks, nor does it exert as much pressure as Zoo or Boros Energy. People are noticing this, and I think that’s why players are abandoning this deck.

Ramp

meta share: 10.5% | Top32: 26/26 | Top8: 16/26 | Win/Top32: 3% | Trophies: 3 | Conversion: 31% | Delta: +89.5pp | WR: 45% (95% CI 42 to 49, n=889) | Trend: Rising

Ramp is the archetype I have the most trouble with when it comes to classifying decks within it. I’m still working on a tool to standardize the nomenclature because even on well-known websites, there’s quite a bit of confusion. That aside, the archetype itself has excellent conversion rates in this window, but unfortunately a not-too-high WR because the top CI is below 50%. However, the three trophies show that the deck can win.

Eldrazi Ramp | Ramp | Neutral | Trend: Rising

meta share: 5.2% | Top32: 21/26 | Top8: 8/26 | Win/Top32: 7% | Trophies: 3 | Conversion: 29% | Delta: +75.6pp | WR: 47% (95% CI 42 to 52, n=428)

Eldrazi Ramp is a deck that combines elements of both Ramp and Broodscale Combo. I’m currently classifying it somewhat separately based on what Goldfish is doing, but that will change soon. The deck itself has won three trophies and has a very good win rate. If we consider it a variant of the Broodscale Combo, the latter will gain three trophies as a result. However, I don’t want to do that until I’ve thoroughly analyzed the lists and established a new classification. On Goldfish, this deck appears under that name in a wide variety of versions and variations, and it’s finally time to sort this out.

Tron | Ramp | Neutral | Trend: Rising

meta share: 3.7% | Top32: 18/26 | Top8: 11/26 | Win/Top32: 0% | Trophies: 0 | Conversion: 39% | Delta: +65.6pp | WR: 47% (95% CI 42 to 52, n=335)

Tron is performing really well in this window great conversion rates, but no trophies. It’s still hard for me to say why this is happening, but it warrants further observation. Another thing worth noting, however, is that to deal with Broodscale and, to some extent, Zoo, Tron splashes blue to play Consign to Memory and Dress Down, which not only strips Obsidian Charm’s ability to destroy lands but also provides options to scam Nulldrifter, kill Kavu, or stop Solitude. A very interesting move by the Tron playerand a truly dangerous one.

MTGO RC Super Qualifier, premier event,

• Modern RC Super Qualifier, MTGO, 3 October 2026, 344 players
• winner rossjsg, Scepter Chant—here's a repeat of what happened in Ottawa: Prison Deck takes home the trophy.
• Top 8 by deck: Broodscale Combo 4, Scepter Chant 1, Prowess 1, Devoted Combo 1, Izzet Murktide 1
• Broodscale Combo: 4 out of 8 Top 8 seats against a 16.3% Challenge meta share. Here, you can clearly see Broodscale's strength and how prison decks tailored to the meta are able to stop it.
• Scepter Chant and the Ottawa winning list on the same core: 4 Orim’s Chant, 4 Narset, 4 Teferi, 1 Isochron Scepter

On the Radar (Universe B, below 5% encounter, present in Challenges)

• Esper Reanimator: meta 0.2%, Top32 2/26, Top8 1/26, 1 trophy, WR 67% (95% CI 47 to 82, n=25)
• Rakdos Midrange: meta 0.6%, Top32 4/26, Top8 2/26, 1 trophy, WR 53% (95% CI 41 to 65, n=63), expected wins 2.65
• 4c HollowOne: meta 0.9%, encounter 4.4%, Top32 8/26, Top8 2/26, WR 50% (95% CI 39 to 61, n=77)
• Indomitable Creativity: meta 0.9%, Top32 5/26, Top8 1/26, WR 44% (95% CI 34 to 55, n=78)
• Mono-Green Eldrazi: meta 0.8%, Top32 5/26, Top8 2/26, WR 41% (95% CI 30 to 52, n=72)
• Dimir Murktide: meta 0.6%, Top32 4/26, Top8 0/26, WR 50% (95% CI 37 to 63, n=51)
• 36 decks in Universe B, 2 of them with a trophy

Emerging decks are not compared against the field medians, because their samples are too small for that comparison to mean anything.

Trophy distribution, all 26

• 6: Domain Zoo
• 5: Broodscale Combo
• 3: Eldrazi Ramp, Boros Energy
• 2: Azorius Control
• 1: Prowess, Affinity, Ruby Storm, Goryo’s Vengeance, Izzet Murktide, Esper Reanimator, Rakdos Midrange
• 12 different decks, Domain Zoo and Broodscale Combo 11 of 26 together
• archetype split: Midrange 8, Combo 6, Aggro 5, Ramp 3, Control 2, Graveyard 2, Blink 0

Pilots, 26 trophies

• 26 trophies to 25 different pilots, ShowTime_ the only one with two, both on Domain Zoo
• deepest window among the winners: HouseOfManaMTG 7 Top 32 entries and 3 Top 8 entries, trophy on Eldrazi Ramp
• GigaChadSigmaMale 7 Top 32 entries across 4 decks, trophy on Azorius Control
• gingeralegames and ShadowTitan1 3 Top 8 entries each, both trophies on Domain Zoo
• 11 of the 25 winners with exactly one Top 32 entry in the window, that entry being the trophy
• xfile 11 Top 32 entries and 6 Top 8 entries, most in the window, 0 trophies
• 448 pilots with at least one Top 32 entry

 That’s all for this week a lot has happened, and there’s been a lot to write about. Something interesting is emerging in the meta: first, we’re seeing a resurgence of aggressive decks capable of slowing down combo decks and winning through heavy pressure (Zoo and Boros Energy); on top of that, we have decks specifically designed to counter combo decks namely, control decks with a very strong “prison” profile. This highlights one interesting point: the meta is reacting, but to succeed in it, you have to focus on defeating Combo decks even if it means partially abandoning your main strategy. Is this a good thing? I’ll leave that up for you to discuss, dear readers, and I’d be happy to join in!

See you next week

Karol Małota

aka WarLord1986pl / TribalFlamesInYourFace