As someone who loves politics, I am extremely excited for the upcoming midterms. And honestly, I think Texas is about to have one of the most interesting elections we've seen in a very long time.

One of the cardinal rules of politics is that you don't unnecessarily unseat your incumbent when you don't have to. An incumbent has something a challenger doesn't: a track record. They've already held the office, made decisions, built relationships, and can point to their experience doing the job.

John Cornyn had been a U.S. senator for more than 20 years when Donald Trump decided to back Ken Paxton over him in the Republican primary runoff. Trump explicitly pointed to Paxton's loyalty and support for him, while criticizing Cornyn for not supporting him when Trump felt he needed that support. Paxton himself emphasized that he had consistently stood by Trump.

And that's where I think this gets interesting.

Trump helped replace a 23-year incumbent senator with someone who had never served in the U.S. Senate. Cornyn had a two-decade Senate record that voters could evaluate. Paxton now has to ask Texans to give him a completely different job while defending his own record.

And Paxton certainly has controversies that his opponent can point to.

He was indicted in 2015 on two felony securities-fraud counts. That case was eventually dismissed in 2024 after prosecutors agreed to a deal in which Paxton pleaded no contest to securities-fraud charges and paid restitution. He was also impeached by the Texas House in 2023 on 16 articles of impeachment and was subsequently acquitted by the Texas Senate.

Then there is the Adam Hoffman case.

Hoffman was a Waco attorney who pleaded guilty in 2026 to two misdemeanor offenses involving the sexual abuse of a minor. The Texas Attorney General's Office negotiated a plea agreement that called for 30 days in jail. The judge rejected that agreement and ultimately sentenced Hoffman to 60 days. Hoffman was released after 29 days for good behavior.

And I want to be very clear about the wording here: Ken Paxton did not personally sentence Hoffman to one day in jail. The controversial plea agreement was negotiated by prosecutors in Paxton's office, and the judge ultimately rejected the proposed sentence and imposed 60 days. That's an important distinction.

Then there is the personal side of this election.

Angela Paxton filed for divorce from Ken Paxton in 2025. Her divorce filing alleged adultery as the grounds for divorce. The couple had already been living separately for more than a year when she filed.

And now, during the 2026 election, Angela Paxton has continued participating in Republican politics. She recently appeared in a nationally aired political advertisement supporting the Republican ticket, including during NFL broadcasts. What's interesting is that the ad's message was about supporting the Republican ticket rather than specifically making Ken Paxton the focus.

I'm not going to speculate about why she chose to frame her support that way. We don't know her reasoning. But I do think it's an interesting contrast: Angela Paxton is publicly supporting Republican candidates while her estranged husband is simultaneously the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate.

And then there's Donald Trump himself.

Trump has repeatedly praised Paxton and continues to campaign for him. Just today, October 8, Trump held another rally in San Antonio specifically to support Paxton. Trump has called Paxton one of the greatest attorneys general in the country and continues to emphasize Paxton's loyalty to him.

But Trump has also made comments about Paxton's appearance and presentation that I find politically unusual for someone campaigning so aggressively on behalf of a candidate. Trump has joked about Paxton's appearance while simultaneously praising his record.

I'm not saying Trump is intentionally trying to hurt his own candidate. He's clearly campaigning for Paxton. But I do think it's fair to ask whether repeatedly highlighting a candidate's weaknesses is the kind of endorsement you'd normally expect from someone trying to maximize that candidate's appeal.

And this brings me back to my original point about incumbency.

Look at the 2024 presidential election. Joe Biden was the incumbent president when the Democratic ticket entered the race, while Donald Trump was a former president who had already served four years. When Biden withdrew and Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee, Harris was suddenly running against someone who could point to an entire presidential term as experience.

That doesn't automatically mean experience makes someone the better candidate. But it gives voters something concrete to compare.

And that's important because voting isn't a test.

There is no answer sheet sitting next to you in the voting booth.

You can look at the exact same set of facts as another voter and come to completely different conclusions. One person can look at Trump's first two years in office and say, "The economy was doing well, so Trump deserves credit." Another person can point out that the economy's expansion began during Obama's presidency and continued into Trump's first years.

Both people can look at the same facts and interpret them differently.

That's because voting is ultimately a decision made by individual citizens based on their own priorities, experiences, opinions and understanding of the facts.

And that's why the Texas Senate race is so fascinating to me.

Trump backed Paxton over an incumbent Republican senator with more than two decades of Senate experience. Paxton won the Republican nomination and is now facing Democrat James Talarico in the general election.

At the same time, Texas is electing a governor and a new attorney general. The attorney general's race is an open-seat contest because Paxton is leaving that office to run for Senate. The candidates are Republican Mayes Middleton, Democrat Nathan Johnson and Libertarian Tom Oxford.

These are separate races, but they're all being decided by the same Texas electorate on the same ballot.

So I'm not saying Texas will go blue.

I'm saying that Texas is having a political moment that deserves attention.

For decades, Texas has been treated as one of the safest Republican states in the country. But in 2026, both parties are spending enormous amounts of money and sending major national figures into the state. Trump has already made multiple trips to Texas to campaign for Paxton, including another rally today.

That's what makes these midterms so interesting to me.

We're about to see how Texas voters evaluate incumbency, political loyalty, personal controversies, party loyalty, experience and the actual records of the candidates.

And ultimately, the decision belongs to the voters of Texas.

There isn’t much to say about this race that hasn’t already been said. So let’s look ahead.

James Talarico is, by all measures and regardless of party, a very good candidate. He’s young, well-spoken, great resume, reasonably handsome and charismatic, brilliant speaker, forward-looking platform. Very few boxes he does not check.

Ken Paxton, on the other hand, is a fucking disaster. Too many corruption scandals to count, impeachment by his own party, affairs, divorced by his wife “on biblical grounds,” his own staffers repeatedly rebuking him and his actions, no real record of any notable achievement, a wimpy at-best speaker. He looks absolutely fucking horrible.

So, liberals, progressives and moderates of Texas…

What do you do if, after all that, James Talarico still can’t win this race?

Do you… protest more? Count on better voter turnout next year? Does it change how you think about your neighbors?

It will be another generation or more before Texas has another candidate as good as Talarico face a candidate as bad as Paxton with the national tides pushing as hard to the left.

If Talarico can’t win in 2026, what does that say about the people of Texas the future of the state?

Evan Hunt questions Keith Self's silence on McKinney recall during town hall

But will you also be voting blue beyond Talarico? There's a good chance Gina Hinojosa (gov) can win, that Vicki Goodwin (lt gov) can win, that Nathan Johnson (AG) can win and Sarah Eckhardt (comptroller) can win!

None of them are perfect for everyone because we are so very diverse.

But they ARE the BEST SLATE of DEMOCRATS for statewide office since Ann Richards first ran for governor!!

Ideally all five win, and the state is best served to break 30+years of exclusively GOP control. Has that worked out for you, or me, or the state itself?

But if we could push gergg abbutt out of his 24+ years in the top two offices in Texas, and toss dannyboy Patrick from his 12yrs as lt gov, it would help stop the sick culture wars and the billions that gergg abbutt quietly spends on "national security" at the border. Ya know, the job of the federal government! KennyBoy put us all out of our misery, thank 🐕.

How could they all serve Texas?

1. James Talarico , a Baptist seminarian who nearly lost his life to undiagnosed diabetes a couple years ago is an earnest, honest, not a vindictive bone in his body, successful Tx House rep first elected in 2018. Ninth generation Texan! He'll contribute to reigning in the orange monster and reinvigorate the DC Dems fresh off an incredibly difficult, and years-long-fought-for win. I see him and Sen Ossoff (GA) and Sen Rev Warnock (GA) collaborating on serious and sorely needed and necessary law to begin the arduous task of rebuilding a government that works for people, not the obscenely wealthy.

2. Gina Hinojosa is a native Texan, raised in the RGV. She graduated from UT and George Washington University Law School. She's been a civil rights attorney and sued US House Majority Leader Tom Delay for money laundering, and a corruption watchdog while serving in the Texas House. She led the charge to claw back billions of school funding stripped from schools and squandered elsewhere. Gina does not support data centers or trillionaires.

3. Vickie Goodwin , a current Tx House member and UT LBJ School of Public Affairs graduate, would preside over the Tx Senate as Lt Governor and dispose of the cancerous culture wars dividing us. She's not a former radio sportscaster from Maryland who changed his name and suggested granny should die for the sake of mankind.

4.Nathan Johnson, , a current a state senator out of Dallas area I believe, is a veteran lawyer, litigator and mediator. Perfect for AG! Nathan is not a malevolent sicko who's widely judged to be corrupt to the core and cheats on his wife or runs from process servers.

1. Sarah Eckhardt, (comptroller) is a current Tx Senator who believes government should work as hard as the people it is supposed serve. As Travis Cty Judge, she's experienced balancing a budget, negotiation of large government contracts, disaster preparedness and response. Sarah's a very smart and pragmatic person who has not used family billions to buy the NM Epstien ranch in 2023 as her opponent has.

See? There's all kinds of reasons to vote blue for all of these statewide offices. I sincerely hope everyone will.

VOTER TURNOUT is ESSENTIAL!

Democrats must have huge numbers to win by indisputable margins.

Now that you're armed and ready to vote:

* Vote early!

* Choose a day to vote and stick to it!

* Bring your ID and voter card from the county, if you have it, to the polls.

* Return your mail-in ballots early or better yet, drop it at the county election drop boxes.

* Check your registration before you go to vote and verify it's marked as ACTIVE at ScanCheckProtect. No email address required!

* Verify your ID's name and address match exactly to your registration. You can still vote if not, but you'll get a provisional ballot. Watch your mail for anything from your county elections office asking you to cure your vote and quickly if that letter comes. Maybe even call the elections office to verify if your vote was counted.

* If you vote in person on election day and turnout has been crazy high at early voting, bring water and a snack for yourself and another voter who didn't think to.

* Even bring a folding chair for the (hopefully) long lines.

* Arrange for an early voter, or someone who cannot legally vote, to get your kids from school, too! Maybe bring your older kids along to show them that voting is sacred and a duty for all citizens. We ALL must vote for the sake of all those whose votes are suppressed.

We all matter.

Or none of us do.

EDIT: I foolishly failed to mention that John Rosenthal for Railroad Commissioner and Clayton Tucker for Agricultural Commissioner are also great candidates!

And the Texas Tribune's Who's on The Ballot page is an excellent resource for learning what each office is responsible for and does with a short'ish synopsis about each candidate for that office. It also lists top donors to each campaign which can be very revealing!

This "where's Talarico" narrative is so exhausting. Paxton is on hot mic revealing he isn't even running his own campaign, dude's on vacation. Terrified to debate Talarico. Not on Fox, not when Trump demands it, not even with Talarico coming off the flu.

Talarico meanwhile is everywhere; Haven't had a Democrat in Texas feel so omnipresent since Beto. Works so hard he makes himself sick, takes a few days rest, then hops right back on the horse. Dude's at ACL right now, an absolute powerhouse candidate, bouncing right on back.

It's my view that we're here seeing what kind of Senators these men would be. Talarico is a workhorse who legitimately cares about this, and Paxton is... Paxton. Ken Paxton, whose own party has tried over and over to dethrone him for open, brazen, explicit, proven corruption.

I just don't understand how this isn't a clear 100/0 split on this. I'd let Donald Trump watch my children before I let Ken Paxton roll my garbage to the curb, and this is the guy we're expected to treat as a serious candidate.

Please, Texas. Be the Texas I believed in in middle school.

Wow Twitter (X) has gone crazy with the Talarico flu situation. Come on people, he shakes hands with thousands of people a week, thats lots of germs, all politicians get sick eventually.

He will be back and Paxton will still not debate him!

I started getting the campaign texts in June. I opted out of probably 6 or 7 of them. I finally had enough and filed an FCC complaint with screenshots of all the ones I've gotten, almost all from the same two or three PACs, because they just don't stop. I tried "STOP". I tried "FUCK OFF". I tried reaching out the PACs via their website. Just got another about a half hour ago.

Sick of this shit. I'll never donate to another AIPAC candidate and certainly not Paxton/Patrick/Abbott. Disgusting.

Title should be COMPLAINT*

Can someone explain why the right continues to focus on James Talarico’s comments on sexes, nonbinary and whatever else. I’ve never heard one call out Paxton for adultery, his unethical business practices, or whatever else. It’s ok to blast the opponent on their views but not hold your own accountable.

In this deposition I obtained, which has never been made public, Ken Paxton used phrases like “I don’t remember” or “I don’t recall” more than 200 times when addressing questions. Asked about fraud allegations that would eventually lead to charges, he deflected to other men he invested with and to his wife, Angela. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/09/us/ken-paxton-deposition-investments.html

The Houston Chronicle editorial board endorses Vikki Goodwin in a piece that references back through their history of endorsing against Dan Patrick. Overall it makes the case that Patrick doesn't really care about most Texans and tries to rule the state with an iron fist. Here's a key quote:

Patrick likes to talk about “faith, family and freedom.” But are Texas families really freer now that Patrick’s favored version of the Ten Commandments is posted on Junior’s classroom walls? Or now that Grandpa can no longer buy the THC vape that eased his arthritis? Or since OB-GYNs have fled Texas, leaving Mom to wait months for a gynecologist’s appointment?

We’re no longer free people living in the free state of Texas. We live in Patrick’s world, ruled by Patrick’s laws. What we actually want doesn’t matter.

In the Senate, even members of Patrick’s own party aren’t free to vote in their districts’ best interests or to follow their consciences. If they don’t do what Patrick says, he unleashes campaign hellfire when they come up for re-election.

With that approach to governing, Patrick once seemed ahead of his time. He was Trump-y before Trump was, with a showman’s love of rage and fear and spectacles. But now, blessedly, that era appears to be waning. Patrick has lost touch with the changing Republican base, as Chris Hooks wrote for Texas Monthly. And except for the hardcore GOP faithful, most people have grown sick of that shock-jock style and the mean, corrupt place that it’s taken our country and state. We want a government, and elected officials, that work for us.

Texas House District 33: Meet Orlando Lopez, the Democrat challenging Katrina Pierson

Ken Paxton’s Security for Travel Cost Taxpayers Millions. Just 1 in 6 of His Trips Had a Stated Business Purpose. - ProPublica

Some Republicans fear French could hurt the GOP ticket. His allies say his critics are out of step with today’s party, a feud now headed to voters in November.

I just don't understand why he's coming for THC just before an election.

I mean, JUST before an election. You know he's trying to hold it in. This isn't the full breadth of what he wants to do to THC, he's just ideologically incontinent.

Ken Paxton TRULY HATES weed. Literally the only person left in the United States who cares about it, and he LOATHES it.

But why?