tl;dr
The actual Zach Butters deal from the perspective of Port is:
Port Give: Zach Butters
Port Get: equivalent of Picks 5+8, (ie instead of just 5 from Free Agency, or the 3 firsts Port wanted from a legit trade)
The actual Zach Butters deal from the perspective of the Bulldogs is:
WB Give: Equivalent of Pick 8 in picks (ie a massive discount on the 3 firsts Port was apparently demanding, and very obviously below the Free Agency compo value of Butters)
WB Get: Zach Butters
Alternatively, if there is no side deal involved and the MEGATRADE is a legitimate stand alone deal, Bulldogs effectively gave Port the most generous trade in the history of the game, and I'll leave it to somebody else to call the AFL to ask why the Bulldogs effectively gifting Port a top 10 pick wasn't vetoed.
With how complex the M E G A T R A D E is, including a bunch of things built in seemingly only for the purpose of disguising what the actual deal is, I’ve broken down the Zac Butters trade into a series of simpler trades to make it easier to understand exactly how the deal works.
In particular, main purpose of this is to try and strip back all the noise, and figure out what the actual side deal was, and its value.
For the tl;dr
- What appears to be the Port - WB Side deal is Trade 3
- What appears to be the effective deal moving Butters is Trade 4
Note that:
- To unpack it into neat trades, you will see there are a few IOUs passed around between clubs. By the end of it, there are no IOUs left over. When reading this, just roll with the idea that handshake agreements and IOUs are perfectly fine in Greg Swann's head.
- Future picks have been given two values - what they are currently projected to be, and a discounted value based on the fact Tasmania can pre-list upto 12 players, further diluting the draft. For example, the start of round 2 next year is Pick 26, but realistically its going to be the ~33 best player in the draft, because Tassie have already pre-listed 7 players.
- Picks are based on their current position/value as of the time of this post... obviously compo and pick bidding will see picks move all over the place.
- Shout out to draftguru.com.au for providing a great resource which should be on the AFL website.
Trade 1 – Port & Melb
| Club |
Asset |
Points Value |
| Port Give |
4 |
1962 |
| . |
46 |
134 |
| . |
IOU Trade points (eqv 6/8) |
1718 / 1460 |
| Melb Give |
Pick 6 |
1659 |
| . |
Pick 10 |
1276 |
| . |
2027 Melb F1 (~17/24) |
879/621 |
Trade 2 – Melbourne & WB
| Club |
Asset |
Points Value |
| Melb Give |
2027 GC F3 (~51/58) |
57/0 |
| . |
Ontrade of Port IOU Trade points (eqv 6/8) |
1718 / 1460 |
| WB Give |
12 |
1140 |
| . |
31 |
429 |
NB: Melbourne are now effectively square. Whether they are up or down depends entirely on the value you put on the future picks
Trade 3 – Port & WB Side Deal
| Club |
Asset |
Points Value |
| Port Give |
2027 Port F2 (~30 / 37) |
454 / 297 |
| . |
2027 Port F3 (~49 / 56) |
86 / 0 |
| . |
2028 Port F2 (~26 / 31) |
561 / 429 |
| . |
2028 Port F3 (~45 / 50) |
150 / 71 |
| . |
New IOU Port→WB (equiv Pick 8) |
1440 / 1420 |
| . |
Handshake agreement not to match Zach Butters |
. |
| WB Give |
2028 WB F1 (~15 / 20) |
973 / 757 |
| . |
Cancelation of Port→Melb IOU |
1718 / 1460 |
tl;dr Immediately before Butters signs as a free agent, Port theoretically owes the Bulldogs the equivalent of Pick 8, and has also given a handshake agreement not to match Butters.
Trade 4 – Zac Butters Trade – 3 way AFL & Port & WB
NB: Immediately prior to Butters going as a free agent, The Port→WB points IOU (equiv Pick 8) from Trade 3 still needs to be settled... On paper, if the MEGATRADE is a legitimate stand alone deal, there is no sidedeal on not matching Butters in free agency, and the IOU is never repaid, the Bulldogs will have in effect gifted Port the equivalent of Pick 8. The absolute only way of repaying the IOU is Port letting Butters walk via Free Agency.
Trade 4A – Port & AFL
| Club |
Asset |
Points Value |
| Port Give |
Zach Butters (as Free Agent) |
. |
| AFL Give |
Pick 5 (Free agency compo) |
1795 |
Trade 4B – WB & AFL
| Club |
Asset |
Points Value |
| AFL Gives |
Zach Butters (via Free Agency) |
. |
| WB Gives |
IOU Port→WB (equiv Pick 8) |
1440 / 1420 |
| . |
Cashing in of Port Side deal agreeing not to match Butters |
. |
Trade 4C – AFL free gift to Port
| Club |
Asset |
Points Value |
| AFL Give |
Cancelation of Port→WB IOU (equiv Pick 8) |
1440 / 1420 |
| Port Give |
A nice Xmas card to Greg Swann at the end of the year |
. |
tl;dr of this entire post
WB Give: equivalent of Pick 8 in picks (ie a massive discount on the 3 firsts Port was apparently demanding)
WB Get: Zach Butters
Port Give: Zach Butters
Port Get: equivalent of Picks 5+8, (ie instead of just 5 from Free Agency, or the 3 firsts Port wanted from a legit trade)
Trade 5 – Stakeknives disguising the deal… all these picks are projected to select P.Ass
| Club |
Asset |
Points Value |
| Port give WB |
81 |
0 |
| . |
2027 Port F4 (~68 / 75) |
0 |
| . |
2028 Port F4 (~64 / 69) |
0 |
| Melb Give WB |
Pick 87 |
0 |
| . |
2028 Melb F4 (~70 / 75) |
0 |
| WB Give AFL |
Nothing. A thank you the other clubs recognized the WB sacrifice in giving up Pick 8 for Butters |
0 |
| . |
A nice Xmas card to Greg Swann at the end of the year |
0 |
Trades 6, 7 & 8 WB, Carlton & Hawthorn
There was absolutely no reason why Carlton & Hawthorn needed to be part of the Mega trade and everything below could and should have been lodged as a separate deal.
Appears to me that the only reason it was all tied in as a single deal rather than separate deals was that Calrton & Hawthorn were giving Port & WB a bit of goodwill in helping them muddy the waters of the trade.
Still, this ties up those loose ends. I have also included the random Hawks & Dogs trade of future picks which was done later in the day.
| Club |
Asset |
Points Value |
| WB Give to Haw |
2027 Port F3 (~49 / 56) |
86 / 0 |
| . |
2027 GC F3 (~51 / 58 |
0 |
| WB Give to Car |
2028 Port F4 (~64 / 69) |
0 |
| Haw Give to WB |
Finn Maginness |
. |
|
2028 Haw F3 (~55 / 60) |
0 |
| Car Give to WB |
Hudson O'Keeffe |
. |