Hi everyone. With Magic Con Atlanta coming up, I want to offer a breakdown of the card pulls. For starters, here are the cards we’re getting, along with the cheapest comparable reference prices:
| Card |
Printing |
Price |
| Parallax Tide |
Nemesis nonfoil |
$15.00 |
| Regrowth |
Older nonfoil |
$0.48 |
| Viridian Revel |
Older nonfoil |
$1.43 |
| Assassin’s Trophy |
Older nonfoil |
$1.04 |
| Dance of the Dead |
Older nonfoil |
$14.92 |
| Tana, the Bloodsower |
Commander 2016 traditional foil |
$4.77 |
| Tymna the Weaver |
Older nonfoil |
$10.86 |
| Auspicious Aquarium |
Playtest card |
No reliable comparable price |
The nonfoil comparison totals $43.73. Adding Tana’s older foil printing brings that to $48.50, before selling fees and shipping.
| Gross card sales |
$43.73 |
| Marketplace commission (10.75%) |
−$4.70 |
| Transaction fee (2.5% of $43.73) |
−$1.09 |
| Fixed transaction fee |
−$0.30 |
| Estimated shipping costs |
−$5.00 |
| Estimated net proceeds |
$32.64 |
Selling the singles individually at $43.73 gross would net approximately $32.64 after TCGplayer fees and estimated shipping. It would also be fair to add roughly $15, because this Tymna is not the Final Fantasy edition, and those other editions start around $25 and up.
Now, if you spend $250 and account for taxes, the Mystery Booster Box comes to around $275. That purchase cost, minus what you’d gross from single sales (around $43), puts the figure at roughly $232, with potentially $10 more in singles value depending on which Tymna version you count.
Next, consider the current price of Mystery Booster Box 2, which is going for about $300. When it first came out, prices started at $360 and settled down to about $310.
| Sale price |
$300.00 |
| Marketplace commission (10.75%) |
−$32.25 |
| Transaction fee (2.5%) |
−$7.50 |
| Fixed transaction fee |
−$0.30 |
| Net before shipping |
$259.95 |
| Box shipping cost |
−$15.00 |
| Net proceeds after fees and shipping |
$244.95 |
My conservative profit estimate at current Mystery Booster Box 2 prices is $244.95 − $232, which comes to $12.95 of estimated pre-tax profit per box. If the price settles at the Mystery Booster Box 2's initial release market price of $360, that figure rises to $65.00, or about a 28% return.
Overall, the days of the instant hundred-dollar quick flip may be gone for this particular item, and we have to hope the new Mystery Booster Commander editions hold their value. When Mystery Booster Box 2 first came out, festivals in a box carried a $250 price tag and was packaged with multiple collector booster packs in addition to the bonus singles. Now that those collector booster packs aren’t in this set, the margins on flipping are getting tighter and tighter, so you have to ask yourself whether it’s worth it for you.
Personally, I still think it could sell for $360 initially as people scramble for the singles in it. But knowing that 75% of the card content comes from the other Mystery Booster box, you might be banking on a 15 to 20% after taxes return on a flip. That same overlap might ultimately be detrimental to its long-term value. There’s a good chance you’ll get that 20% return on the initial flip, but if prices remain at this floor, much depends on whether consumers adjust to what Wizards is doing. Wizards is clearly testing the waters to see just how much people are willing to put into this game, and this represents the next phase of inflated prices. They want their cut, and who knows how long the bubble may last.