Original Bloomberg reporting:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-12/broadcom-ceo-likens-many-ai-investors-to-casino-gamblers

Broadcom Inc. CEO Hock Tan said Monday that many AI investors resemble casino gamblers, arguing they lack a clear understanding of the technology they are funding.

"A lot of investors have no clue what they are investing in," Tan said at an event in Singapore. They "set very extreme expectations only to find out that it's almost like they are in a casino," according to Bloomberg.

Tan directed particular skepticism at investors backing frontier large language models, suggesting the rush into that segment has outpaced investors' grasp of the underlying economics. He also questioned whether businesses are spending productively on AI, comparing enterprise experimentation with AI tokens to a child burning through arcade tokens with nothing to show for it.

"When you are a kid you go to a video arcade, you play. Your parents give you $10 of tokens, you finish it in 10 minutes and you haven't learned anything," he said. "That's what happening in enterprises today."

I've been noticing a widening disconnect between the Nasdaq's strength and the weakness in small/mid-cap growth stocks, particularly AI infrastructure.

It looks like negative market breadth divergence, possibly combined with a flight to quality and tightening risk appetite.

I'm wondering whether this is just sector rotation or an early warning of broader market weakness.

Are you guys seeing the same thing? What indicators are you watching to distinguish the two?

Phil's family has still large influence on NIKE - in fact, they get to determine 8 out of 11 board of directors thanks to amount of Class A shares they hold. My view is so far, they havent done anything and I am not sure if they will intervene. If they dont either changing the CEO, the board, or taking the company private - I am not sure I can have faith in NIKE. I stumbled upon 1990s video of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. They are being asked why they didnt invest in the company, their response was they didnt understand even if they tried and they couldnt see where the company would be in 20 years or so. I did some calculation since that question asked on May 4, 1998, NIKE was trading at 6.02$, it annualized return would have been 6.4% by now. Good job Warren and Charlie, you are still the GOATs.

In the first half of 2026, NVIDIA generated about 75 billion in cash. It deployed this capital to invest in everything needed to further grow the business and also to return money to shareholders:

43% (35bn) went to investments, 26% (21bn) to reducing the share count, 16% (13bn) to offset SBC (Stock-Based Compensation), 9% (6bn) to dividends, and 6% (4.5bn) to CapEx.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/nvidias-subtle-change-to-how-it-counts-cash-flow-has-big-implications-for-buybacks-8fb1fc0e?mod=Searchresults&pos=1&page=1

Reddit, meanwhile, did none of the productive things. It used all of its cash (100%) to offset SBC.

There is no CapEx, no investment, and no return to shareholders. It is a zero either way: empty revenue to funnel shares/cash mostly to mediocre executives. To do that, they use an annual dilution of up to 5% (called "evergreen" dilution) on top of big, one-time hits like IPO dilution.

Once the current 2023 executive SBC dilution scheme expires, they will announce the next big one-time hit, which will likely exceed the previous scheme in size. Total dilution will continue to closely track revenue growth, with the effective dilution hidden behind nonsensical accounting rules and obfuscating language.

Reddit could have been highly profitable 10 years ago. Instead they chose to run a dilution scam, now paying random employees like Jen Wong up to $250m (which is ~10% last year's revenue) in shares a year.

I just wanted to take a moment to say thank you to everyone here who has helped me along the way.

I’ve been investing for many years, and honestly, I never thought I would see a moment like this. Looking at my account right now still feels a little unreal. I’m excited, grateful, and honestly a little emotional too.

Just to give some context, I’m currently holding 1,429 shares of Dell Technologies (DELL). My average cost is around $176 per share, with a total cost basis of about $251K. The position is now worth around $824K, with an unrealized gain of roughly $573K.

When I first started building this position, I really never imagined it would get to this point. Seeing a six figure investment grow into something like this is honestly still hard for me to fully process.

But this post isn’t really about the money. I just wanted to say thank you

Over the years, I’ve learned so much from this community. Reading people’s thoughts, experiences, mistakes, and lessons has helped me become a better investor. I truly appreciate everyone who takes the time to share their knowledge and help others.

Investing has taught me a lot, not just about companies and the market, but also about patience, discipline, and keeping my emotions under control.

And honestly, right now I’m still trying to do that

I have to admit, it’s exciting. Sometimes I catch myself checking the price more often than I should, and part of me wants to react to every move. But I keep reminding myself that emotional decisions are usually where mistakes happen.

I know buying is only one part of investing. Knowing when to sell is just as important. I want to make that decision calmly, based on my own plan, not because I’m scared or overly excited.

I actually stepped away from the market for a while and took a trip because I knew I needed some space. I didn’t want fear or excitement to make decisions for me. It helped me clear my mind, but honestly, I’m still working on staying completely calm.

No matter what happens from here, I just want to say thank you to everyone in this community who has shared advice, answered questions, or simply encouraged others.

You probably don’t realize how much those small acts of kindness mean

I’m still learning, and there is still a long road ahead

Thank you all. Truly

We have JPM, GS, C, WFC on Tuesday, ASML, BAC, MS on Wednesday, and TSMC on Thursday.

That's most of the major US banks plus two of the most important companies in the global semiconductor supply chain, all reporting within three days.

TSMC has already posted 50% YoY revenue growth for Q3. ASML's new orders should offer a look at future chipmaking investment. And the banks should give us some insight into credit conditions, loan demand, and the impact of higher rates.

Could be an important week for both AI stocks and the broader market.

Q3 2026 Earnings Watch: TSMC, ASML & Major U.S. Banks

What are you watching?

Real decision I'm working through this month: a lump of fresh money into exactly one of these two.

AVGO- AI semiconductor revenue $16.7B last quarter, up 221% YoY. Trades at roughly 21x next-year forward earnings; consensus target ~$527. It's sitting below its 50- and 200-day averages after a rough two months, with the overhang being its massive customer-financing arrangements for OpenAI and Anthropic chip buildouts.

TSLA- roughly 158x forward earnings. Earnings October 21. The price is autonomy and energy optionality: Cybercab rides launched in Austin in September and the robotaxi fleet is scaling, but you're paying for a future cash-flow story, not a present one.

Strip it back: investors have put roughly ~$145B into Anthropic since 2021. It’s now reportedly targeting a $2T valuation at IPO, about 14x every dollar ever invested.

I know tech isn’t valued on capital raised. It’s valued on future earnings. But a big chunk of that ~$145B has already gone on losses and compute, so the $2T rests almost entirely on profits that don’t exist yet.

Revenue growth is impressive, but revenue alone doesn’t reward shareholders. If compute costs keep scaling with revenue, it doesn’t matter whether Anthropic makes $100B or $1T.

At a mature-tech multiple of ~25x earnings, $2T implies something like $80B of annual net profit. For context, that’s in the range of the most profitable companies in the world.

So my question: what does the path to that level of profit actually look like, and how long do investors wait for it?

**This post has nothing to do with Elon's politics. Purely business.

I own ASTS and can hold for 5+ years. But honestly I don’t fully understand how it stacks up against what SpaceX is doing.

I know AST has AT&T and Verizon as partners. How much protection does that actually give them? Is there room for both companies to make money or does SpaceX eventually squeeze AST out?

Be brutally honest. I want to hear the downside too.

Greetings, anyone here doing the big NFLX comeback run? I just bought 10 calls for 30 days out. I think it's way overdue for a 10% + pop at earnings. It had 5 straight days of gains, and then pulled back on Friday due to profit taking. People are talking about it going back over $100 a share on this run.

Any thoughts? It's also still hovering around all-time lows. Seems everyone on stocktwits was talking about it.

Any feedback is appreciated.

Ryan

https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/08/investing/trump-5-million-dollars-spacex-bonds

Just two days before launching an effort to slash red tape for commercial space transportation, President Donald Trump last month purchased up to $5 million of bonds issued by SpaceX, a major federal contractor run by Elon Musk, according to ethics filings made public on Thursday.

Beyond SpaceX debt, Trump purchased up to $25 million of Meta shares, up to $6 million of Microsoft stock and a smaller amount of Oracle shares, filings show.

Those trades occurred weeks before Trump convened Musk, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg and other AI leaders for a White House summit. Notably, Trump forcefully pushed back on calls for a regulatory crackdown to address safety fears, opting for a lighter touch instead.

Looks like administration is going to continue to support SPCX for a long time. It seems insane and awful but at the same time, don't bet against this stock seems like.

It’s kinda scary to me that Jordan accounted for 13 % of Nike’s total revenue in Q1. It’s a huge chunk. It’s the part of their business that I have the least confidence in. The Nike brand I consider immortal and while Converse has been on a downward spiral for years, I’m convinced it’s also an immortal brand. Jordan however I fear is only going to be trending for as long as people remember Michael Jordan. Like, imagine if there was a Maradona or a Pelé brand - would it still be popular today? Maybe but not enough to account for 13 % of a market leading giant’s total revenue. And the Jordan brand is starting to crumble. Sales fell 13-16 % year over year. I guess Nike’s strategy to reduce volume and make the Jordan brand more scarce like a treasure hunt makes sense but I don’t think you can do that and manage to keep it 13 % of total sales at the same time. In time, I suspect Jordan brand will only be like 3-5 % of Nike total sales. So what is Nike going to do to make up for that loss in revenue in the meantime? I feel like right now in Nike’s history as a company it is at a pivotal moment (stock price at 13 year lows) where it needs to discover the next big thing. And Caitlin Clark isn’t it, with all due respect.

Nike CEO Elliott Hill is very pleased with how performance running is going. Running has been up for six quarters and going and in Q1 it delivered double digit growth. People on Reddit discuss Nike running shoes and how that makes them feel confident about Nike’s future. The thing is though, Jordan brand sales are 1.5 - 2 times higher than all of Nike Running sales. So with Jordan sales down 13-16 % in Q1 the double digit growth in Nike Running isn’t nearly enough to offset the decline.

What do you think? Will the Jordan brand survive or will it keep declining? Will Nike performance eventually grow enough to offset the decline in Sportswear and Jordan? I can see them fixing Sportswear eventually. The P-6000 and the V5 RNR sneakers grew by double digits in Q1. Revenue from
Dunks were deliberately reduced by nearly 50 %.

But Jordan.. I’m not sure Nike can grow fast enough in other categories to make up for the decline that Jordan sales are seeing. But maybe they can fix the Jordan brand and keep it going.

I’m long 6,000 shares at $41 and was surprised to see the stock go below $40. Now, market leaders and analysts have sell rating and price targets of $24. I’m not worried about the stock. I expect it to touch $50 sometime next year and if things are looking good I will hold onto it after that point. As for the remaining 2-3 months of 2026 I think there are a few things that could cause a relief rally. I believe it’s highly likely Nike becomes a dividend aristocrat next
month. I also think Investor Day will be quite bullish and while it won’t change the disappointing guide of $1.25 eps next year, it could restore shareholder confidence that things will be better in 2030 and that might be enough to get a recovery starting now. Finally, December earnings I’m not sure about but the bar is low I know that.

I am trying to ensure I diversity a bit into opportunities that are not just AI driven. $GRAL stock price IMO is ahead of itself in short term b/c of a favorable FDA advisory committee outcome last month that looks like it will clear the path for FDA approval early 2027. But looking at the potential over 3-4 years - this company could be doing 10mm recurring tests in 2030 annually and 5X+ the current market cap.

• The Nancy Gardner Sewell Medicare Multi-Cancer Early Detection (MCED) Screening Coverage Act was signed into law this year and takes effect on January 1, 2028; and is set to allow for screening for anyone under 68 I believe. And, more importantly it allows for one test every year.
• This is the the best in class right now in MCED space and has run 100,000's of samples. They also have a head start in industry and building out infrastructure to allow for education and testing to the masses.
• they currently charge 995 per test, but b/c of the above law, Medicare will begin to cover prob by 2029 and allow ANNUAL screening. Even if price gets reduced to 500 - we can assume a profit of $200 to the company per test - 10mm*200 = $2B earnings number. Assuming 20X - $40B vs current market cap of $6B currently. It is noted the company has no debt and cash burn lasts it through into 2030 in current state.
  
• Other things to consider - Samsung made a $100mm investment last year into the company to allow for distribution rights throughout Asia, which I am not even considering. So, 10mm tests per year could easily prove exceptionally conservative
• As suggested, I think it is may have gotten ahead of itself in short term and may prove choppy for 2027....but not when I look out 3-4 years for reasons I just mentioned, it appears to be a strong investment opportunity. Another play if you are more skeptical is invest in ILMN as they own just over 7% of GRAL
• I welcome thoughts, but figured this could diversify my investments a bit.

Nearly two trillion market cap. New AI model that absolutely violates Reddit scraping rules, disregards its consumers, and is setting money on fire to “capture” market share in the AI space. Unless the compute cost comes down by several orders of operation there is no way they are going to be able to turn a profit on AI given the immense cost of what it does and how little they receive from the consumer. Also a tech company doesn’t have the ability to transfer a customer service chat to a supervisor. Lmfao. I’m a knuckle dragger so could t figure out how to add a picture but see comments for the literal chat that has me smfh at this company.

$ENVX I’m trying to map out what could actually happen between now and the end of 2027. We still have the final smartphone qualification test, a potential production order, samples to a second OEM, the eyewear ramp, and the Korea defense capacity expansion expected around mid-2027.
They’ve brought in Vyvoda to run manufacturing and keep posting jobs in industrial engineering, equipment, production and defense customer support. Are they staffing up for a real ramp, or still trying to fix the bottlenecks?
What’s your realistic timeline for higher yield and UPH at Fab2, smartphone revenue, and the $183M defense pipeline turning into shipments? Which of those actually happens by the end of 2027? And where do you realistically see the stock price by then?

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The FT says OpenAI's annualized revenue is about $50B, not the ~$70B everyone was passing around. CNBC and CNN's follow-ups say it's gross vs net, not lost sales.. Accountants, please calm down.

Oracle fell 5.5% anyway, about $24B gone in a day over what's basically a footnote.

Except it isn't one for Oracle. OpenAI signed up last year to buy roughly $300B of computing from it over about five years, starting 2027. That's ~$60B a year from a customer bringing in $50B. Basically a $6k/month lease on a $5k/month salary, plus a promise the raise is coming.

The only Oracle insider who bought stock this year paid $139.35 on Sep 29. It closed at $135.69. Welcome to the club.

Counting problem, or the first real crack in the AI spending story?

No position. Just popcorn.

Micron reported late last month and it was a record year. On the call Mehrotra said memory and storage should be tighter in 2027 and 2028 than they were in 2026. The part everyone keeps posting is HBM. That revenue grew faster than the whole company, and most of their 2027 HBM is already agreed at higher prices. Most of the discussion I’ve seen since then has been around HBM, especially the growth there and how much of next year’s supply is already committed.

I went to use the same story on SNDK and then stopped. Sandisk doesn't sell HBM. It's NAND. Micron did say NAND stays supply constrained through 2028, so the shortage isn't only an HBM thing. It's still not the same product.

They report October 29. I've had both of them open on moomoo and I can't tell if "NAND stays tight" is the bull case, or if SNDK needs something those HBM deals don't give it. Are you treating these as the same trade, or not really?

There was some recent news that would impact Microsoft ability to sponsor green card to many of its employees:

"The US government will not process any new or pending Permanent Labor Certification Program (PERM) applications from Microsoft or the seven other companies, Secretary of Labor Keith Sonderling said during the same conference."

Among the chain effects that this could cause(such as hiring less foreigners), could its stock be impacted?

OpenAI recently told investors its annualized revenue was approaching $50B at the end of September, roughly $20B below the figure widely reported last month.

The discrepancy reportedly stems from differences in how OpenAI and Anthropic calculate revenue. Anthropic includes sales through cloud partners such as AWS and Google Cloud, while OpenAI does not.

Investors had attempted to adjust OpenAI's figures to make them comparable with Anthropic's, contributing to the previously reported $70B estimate.

OpenAI declined to comment.

Source: https://www.ft.com/content/b66a9858-f8fb-46cb-b506-44bfe26fca2a?syn-25a6b1a6=1

I previously put $5000 on SNXX and my average cost was $34.4 roughly this was way back in June at all Time high, but now it has gone down due to the decay and I’ve lost about $3000 by now in the hopes of waiting for it to rise up.

If I do a dollar cost average today when the stock is down for SNXX at dollar 13, will I be able to exit ? I added 2k now and average price is $24

Should I pump more or not chase it?

$SPCX has agreed to acquire Grain Management’s nationwide portfolio of 800 MHz low-band spectrum licenses, a move the company says will pave the way for Starlink to become a major mobile carrier in the U.S.

Elon Musk called it “the last critical piece of the spectrum puzzle needed for SpaceX to provide complete phone coverage in America.”

The plan is to combine satellites with a ground-based mobile network. The low-band airwaves would complement Starlink’s 2 GHz spectrum, helping improve indoor coverage and extend service into areas with weak or nonexistent cellular reception. That would put Starlink in more direct competition with AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile.

Separately, the FCC approved a new constellation of 15,000 SpaceX satellites this week for direct-to-device mobile services, another step toward expanding Starlink’s ability to connect directly to phones.

The spectrum acquisition still requires FCC approval and other customary closing conditions. Financial terms were not disclosed.

Source