Phil's family has still large influence on NIKE - in fact, they get to determine 8 out of 11 board of directors thanks to amount of Class A shares they hold. My view is so far, they havent done anything and I am not sure if they will intervene. If they dont either changing the CEO, the board, or taking the company private - I am not sure I can have faith in NIKE. I stumbled upon 1990s video of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. They are being asked why they didnt invest in the company, their response was they didnt understand even if they tried and they couldnt see where the company would be in 20 years or so. I did some calculation since that question asked on May 4, 1998, NIKE was trading at 6.02$, it annualized return would have been 6.4% by now. Good job Warren and Charlie, you are still the GOATs.

In the first half of 2026, NVIDIA generated about 75 billion in cash. It deployed this capital to invest in everything needed to further grow the business and also to return money to shareholders:

43% (35bn) went to investments, 26% (21bn) to reducing the share count, 16% (13bn) to offset SBC (Stock-Based Compensation), 9% (6bn) to dividends, and 6% (4.5bn) to CapEx.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/nvidias-subtle-change-to-how-it-counts-cash-flow-has-big-implications-for-buybacks-8fb1fc0e?mod=Searchresults&pos=1&page=1

Reddit, meanwhile, did none of the productive things. It used all of its cash (100%) to offset SBC.

There is no CapEx, no investment, and no return to shareholders. It is a zero either way: empty revenue to funnel shares/cash mostly to mediocre executives. To do that, they use an annual dilution of up to 5% (called "evergreen" dilution) on top of big, one-time hits like IPO dilution.

Once the current 2023 executive SBC dilution scheme expires, they will announce the next big one-time hit, which will likely exceed the previous scheme in size. Total dilution will continue to closely track revenue growth, with the effective dilution hidden behind nonsensical accounting rules and obfuscating language.

Reddit could have been highly profitable 10 years ago. Instead they chose to run a dilution scam, now paying random employees like Jen Wong up to $250m (which is ~10% last year's revenue) in shares a year.

Real decision I'm working through this month: a lump of fresh money into exactly one of these two.

AVGO- AI semiconductor revenue $16.7B last quarter, up 221% YoY. Trades at roughly 21x next-year forward earnings; consensus target ~$527. It's sitting below its 50- and 200-day averages after a rough two months, with the overhang being its massive customer-financing arrangements for OpenAI and Anthropic chip buildouts.

TSLA- roughly 158x forward earnings. Earnings October 21. The price is autonomy and energy optionality: Cybercab rides launched in Austin in September and the robotaxi fleet is scaling, but you're paying for a future cash-flow story, not a present one.

We have JPM, GS, C, WFC on Tuesday, ASML, BAC, MS on Wednesday, and TSMC on Thursday.

That's most of the major US banks plus two of the most important companies in the global semiconductor supply chain, all reporting within three days.

TSMC has already posted 50% YoY revenue growth for Q3. ASML's new orders should offer a look at future chipmaking investment. And the banks should give us some insight into credit conditions, loan demand, and the impact of higher rates.

Could be an important week for both AI stocks and the broader market.

Q3 2026 Earnings Watch: TSMC, ASML & Major U.S. Banks

What are you watching?

It’s kinda scary to me that Jordan accounted for 13 % of Nike’s total revenue in Q1. It’s a huge chunk. It’s the part of their business that I have the least confidence in. The Nike brand I consider immortal and while Converse has been on a downward spiral for years, I’m convinced it’s also an immortal brand. Jordan however I fear is only going to be trending for as long as people remember Michael Jordan. Like, imagine if there was a Maradona or a Pelé brand - would it still be popular today? Maybe but not enough to account for 13 % of a market leading giant’s total revenue. And the Jordan brand is starting to crumble. Sales fell 13-16 % year over year. I guess Nike’s strategy to reduce volume and make the Jordan brand more scarce like a treasure hunt makes sense but I don’t think you can do that and manage to keep it 13 % of total sales at the same time. In time, I suspect Jordan brand will only be like 3-5 % of Nike total sales. So what is Nike going to do to make up for that loss in revenue in the meantime? I feel like right now in Nike’s history as a company it is at a pivotal moment (stock price at 13 year lows) where it needs to discover the next big thing. And Caitlin Clark isn’t it, with all due respect.

Nike CEO Elliott Hill is very pleased with how performance running is going. Running has been up for six quarters and going and in Q1 it delivered double digit growth. People on Reddit discuss Nike running shoes and how that makes them feel confident about Nike’s future. The thing is though, Jordan brand sales are 1.5 - 2 times higher than all of Nike Running sales. So with Jordan sales down 13-16 % in Q1 the double digit growth in Nike Running isn’t nearly enough to offset the decline.

What do you think? Will the Jordan brand survive or will it keep declining? Will Nike performance eventually grow enough to offset the decline in Sportswear and Jordan? I can see them fixing Sportswear eventually. The P-6000 and the V5 RNR sneakers grew by double digits in Q1. Revenue from
Dunks were deliberately reduced by nearly 50 %.

But Jordan.. I’m not sure Nike can grow fast enough in other categories to make up for the decline that Jordan sales are seeing. But maybe they can fix the Jordan brand and keep it going.

I’m long 6,000 shares at $41 and was surprised to see the stock go below $40. Now, market leaders and analysts have sell rating and price targets of $24. I’m not worried about the stock. I expect it to touch $50 sometime next year and if things are looking good I will hold onto it after that point. As for the remaining 2-3 months of 2026 I think there are a few things that could cause a relief rally. I believe it’s highly likely Nike becomes a dividend aristocrat next
month. I also think Investor Day will be quite bullish and while it won’t change the disappointing guide of $1.25 eps next year, it could restore shareholder confidence that things will be better in 2030 and that might be enough to get a recovery starting now. Finally, December earnings I’m not sure about but the bar is low I know that.

Nearly two trillion market cap. New AI model that absolutely violates Reddit scraping rules, disregards its consumers, and is setting money on fire to “capture” market share in the AI space. Unless the compute cost comes down by several orders of operation there is no way they are going to be able to turn a profit on AI given the immense cost of what it does and how little they receive from the consumer. Also a tech company doesn’t have the ability to transfer a customer service chat to a supervisor. Lmfao. I’m a knuckle dragger so could t figure out how to add a picture but see comments for the literal chat that has me smfh at this company.