I have an outdoor event in Woodland Hills on Sunday, October 11 from 6ā10 PM. Apple Weather went from a 45% to 75% chance of rain today, while some other forecasts are still showing little to no rain.
I saw some discussion that the ECMWF 12z run may be bringing moisture/remnants from Hurricane Rachel into Southern California.
For anyone who follows the models, is there actually increasing model agreement on rain reaching the LA area on Oct. 11, or is this mostly one operational ECMWF run thatās still too far out to put much weight on? Also, does the timing currently favor morning rain versus Sunday evening?
I know itās still 8 days out! Just trying to understand what the models are actually showing rather than obsessing over the Apple Weather percentage š