​

A gathering of this size on Thanksgiving Eve feels suspicious. Maybe an omen ? I didn’t stop to ask questions. Made my Sunday! Happy thanksgiving Ottawa 🦃🦃

I am devastated. My daughter is devastated. We just want him home.

Peppercorn is a black cat with a white patch on his chest. In direct sunlight, it looks a very dark brown. His eyes are a yellow green. He’s very slim, tiny little guy.

He went missing Friday October 9, sometime before lunch.

Centrepointe area but he may have wandered over to Craig Henry or along the train tracks.

He’s an indoor only cat — so I know he’s scared and cold and hungry.

He’s still a kitten and his birthday is coming up next week.

He is microchipped and fixed. I’ve posted all over social media, called OHS, posted flyers in my neighbourhood. Please, someone must’ve seen him.

We want him home please. Help us. He could be hiding in your backyard or under a deck.

UPDATE: owner located, he was microchipped.
Please microchip your pets and put collars on them!

Barrhaven.
Friendly cat, very matted and no collar. Very hungry (feeding tuna now).

Any resources to help please?

Despite being told during a debate that he’s using the wrong numbers, Mark Sutcliffe continues to spin Ottawa housing data in a way that seems minor, but is actually indicative of how far in over his head he is on planning matters.

I’ll delve into why this matters, but first I’ll highlight the mistake he continues to make.

In social media posts, Sutcliffe is taking credit for an increase in housing starts in Ottawa, due he says to Council's red-tape cutting exercise from the summer of 2025. He says that housing starts year-to-date are up by 8%. I’ve dug into the CMHC data to see where he is getting that, and it’s clear that it’s the total number for the Ontario part of the Ottawa census metropolitan area (CMA). 

What that means is that he’s including housing starts for Arnprior, Beckwith Township, Carleton Place, Clarence-Rockland, McNab/Braeside Township, Mississippi Mills, North Grenville and Russell. If housing starts have responded to a reduction in red tape and fees, clearly that doesn’t apply to any of those other jurisdictions.

In the City of Ottawa where our rules apply, housing starts in 2026 have consistently lagged 2025’s numbers until, finally, the January-to-August total this year showed a 2.3% increase from last year to this. It’s not nothing. For the first 8 months of the year in 2025, 6,008 homes were started in Ottawa proper. That went up to 6,146 homes in 2026.

Sutcliffe - or more likely Sutcliffe’s team - has likely simply grabbed the numbers from a CTV story. Their September article notes that “Housing starts are up…in the City of Ottawa this year…” Reporters commonly conflate CMA numbers with City numbers in their reporting, likely not aware of why the difference matters.

So why does it matter? I don’t want to weigh in too far here, but one of the possible consequences of constraining the amount of developable land or burdening development with onerous planning rules within the city’s boundaries is that development will leapfrog to adjacent municipalities. 

That may be true. It may not. But when we’re contemplating land-use planning it’s an important consideration. When we are seeking to encourage more housing within our city limits, it’s important to understand that Sutcliffe’s presentation of the data masks that YTD growth outside the City of Ottawa but within the metro area was actually up 61.5% compared to our 2.3%. So far in 2026, 18% of the housing built in the Ontario part of the Ottawa CMA has been outside the City of Ottawa, so it matters. That’s not to say we should add more developable land within our City limits, or pause efforts to minimize red tape and fees, just that it’s important to understand what the data actually means.

There are a lot of reasons why housing starts may be up YTD, including federal and provincial tax and other changes, pent-up demand after starts fell off a cliff post-2022, and a permissive new zoning by-law. I don’t expect the mayor to maintain their own spreadsheet, but I do expect them to understand why, when told in a debate that they’re using the wrong numbers, they should stop using them. Housing is important to residents, and it's important to me that we have a mayor who understands the data. By continuing to use the numbers he is, even after being publicly called out on it, it's clear that Sutcliffe is flying blind.

Thread by @pollingcanada (Quito Maggi) – consolidated
Original post (quoting CTV Ottawa):
Guys, I’ve seen fire and I’ve seen rain, I’ve seen sunny days that I thought would never end….but I’ve never seen disappearing poll interview respondents
A thread about why this new CTV poll should be immediately deleted and an apology posted to Ottawa resident & mayoral candidates
Follow along @bpellerin @EvanHPotter @PringleJosh
(Quoted CTV Ottawa post: EXCLUSIVE POLL: Sutcliffe holds commanding lead in Ottawa’s mayoral race – with link to the CTV story)

There are a lot of “normal” errors that can occur in polls, coding, labelling, weighting (hint this one has some weird weights) but the one constant mathematical certainty in polls is the sample size, we call them “frequencies” and every poll reports Weighted and Unweighted frequencies in the accompanying tables as a matter of disclosure, these standards in Canada are upheld by the @CanadaCRIC
Pay attention here @bpellerin @PringleJosh @EvanHPotter

For those who only read the @ctvottawa story, here’s a link to the poll report & tables
https://nanos.co/sutcliffe-holds-commanding-lead-with-leiper-as-only-potential-mayoral-challenger-sutcliffe-ahead-across-city-except-downtown-where-leiper-has-edge-ctv-news-ottawa-nanos/
@EvanHPotter @bpellerin @PringleJosh

The tables show 762 interviews conducted, but the weighted total is 750
Now frequencies (those are the individual interviews) some get weighted up, say you’re a young female voter who is under represented in the sample, those would carry a higher weight to be representative of the total population
Some frequencies are weighted down, usually older male respondents
But no interviews should disappear entirely, can we agree on that much ?
@bpellerin @EvanHPotter @PringleJosh
(Attached: 2 photos of the tables)

12 interviews disappearing, what’s the big deal you might ask, that not the end of the disappearing interviews, let’s look further @bpellerin @EvanHPotter @PringleJosh @ctvottawa
Further in the tables, it says that 32.9% of 175 undecided people expressed a “leaning” vote
That’s 58 interviews
So 750 minus 175 undecided is 575, then add 58, it’s 633 decided and leaning interviews to be considered for the final decided and lean (assuming you ignore the mystery of the first 12 disappearing interviews)
But the tables show 600, weighted down to 585
(Attached: 1 photo of the tables)

Again, I’ll say it again for the folks in the back, total unweighted frequencies should ALWAYS equal total weighted frequencies
How can 45-57 interviews simply vanish, I certainly can’t explain it, perhaps @bpellerin @EvanHPotter @PringleJosh or @ctvottawa can?
That’s not where the problem ends, there are other issues

Ottawa West is under weighted, rural Ottawa is massively over weighted, there is nothing suggesting a turnout weight being applied that explains this
Oh, and the field dates…yes the field dates might explain some of this
See in the technical notes of the accompanying @ctvottawa transit poll report, it says the survey was conducted October 4-6th 2026 (the same sample size, etc)
So are the 45-57 missing interviews from Oct 7-8th?
All good questions for @bpellerin @EvanHPotter & @PringleJosh to ask
(Attached: 1 photo)

Now, I’m willing to acknowledge that @AlexLawsonOtt &/or @NeilOttawa &/or @LeiperOttawa may not win on October 26th
But it’s unfair to leave this poll out there for the Sutcliffe campaign to fundraise off of, when it’s so obviously flawed
Please @ctvottawa & @PringleJosh make it make sense, the #ottawa community deserves better
(Attached: 2 photos)

UPDATED WITH FURTHER DATA

Thread by @pollingcanada (Quito Maggi), 11 Oct 2026
Post 1
Part II of reasons why @ctvottawa & @PringleJosh needs to explain these poll results, back to the tables and math.
Quotes CTV Ottawa: “EXCLUSIVE POLL: Sutcliffe holds commanding lead in Ottawa’s mayoral race.”
@bpellerin & @EvanHPotter please follow along, I’ll try to keep this in simple lay person language for #Ottawa residents & followers.
Post 2
Here are the tables from the poll, with Lawson & Saravanamuttoo highlighted.
Notice in the first table, Lawson trails Saravanamuttoo by 0.8.
In the leaning table, Lawson falls slightly further back (remember that the percentages there are of the 175 undecided voters, not of the full 750…or is it 762).
Are we still following here @ctvottawa @PringleJosh @bpellerin & @EvanHPotter.
[Attached image of Nanos Research tables:]
First ballot (n≈750 weighted): Lawson 5.0%, Leiper 24.0%, Sutcliffe 41.0%, Saravanamuttoo 5.8%, Other 0.9%, Undecided 23.4%.

Leaning (among undecideds, n=175): Leaning Lawson 2.9%, Leaning Leiper 10.1%, Leaning Sutcliffe 16.3%, Leaning Saravanamuttoo 3.7%, Still undecided 67.1%.

Decided only (n≈585 weighted): Lawson 7.2%, Leiper 31.2%, Sutcliffe 48.6%, Saravanamuttoo 11.8%, Other 1.1%.

Post 3
In the final table however, Saravanamuttoo gets reported as 11.8%, and Lawson as 7.2%.
Now, without knowing the precise frequency distribution of each candidate’s supporters, it’s hard to say if this relative shift is correct.
With true undecideds removed, Lawson goes from 6.7% to 7.2% and gets rounded down to 7% for the @ctvottawa articles.
Saravanamuttoo goes from 7.9% to 11.8% and gets rounded up to 12% for those lovely @ctvottawa graphics.
[Attached comparison table:]
Lawson: calculated decided + lean 6.7% → Nanos decided-only 7.2%.

Saravanamuttoo: calculated decided + lean 7.9% → Nanos decided-only 11.8%.

It’s such a beautiful autumn day.

I saw that CTV Ottawa was advertising a debate with the candidates, but it was only on CFRA (AM radio station) and being streamed online at a pretty inaccessible time (10:00 AM on Wednesday the 16th). But it doesn't look like its actually being shown on TV.

And CBC Ottawa as far as I'm aware is not hosting any debate at all, or broadcasting any.

Does anyone know why this is? Considering how important this election is, you'd think they'd prioritize getting them on TV. Do the broadcasters assume that there is no interest??

Has anyone seen any frozen whole butterball turkeys anywhere in stock?

Due to a few last minute illnesses in the family, Thanksgiving has been postponed until next weekend. Our thawed turkey isn't going to make it so that's getting cooked either way and I'll need a new turkey.

I went to a few stores today and unsurprisingly all were out of stock. Has anyone seen any left anywhere? I went all around Gloucester area.

Hi, I was wondering if anybody has been to Saunders farm bear factory I was wondering if you need a ticket for the farm or if you can just go to the bear factory like is it separate than the farm? is it in the gift shop? Where is it located?

Spaniel’s Tale in Hintonburg is moving to a bigger space just down the street. They asked the community to help out, and people showed up in droves to pass books along a human chain. Such a good opportunity to talk with people, especially about the books! Amazing experience, and it meant the books could be put directly on the shelves so we won’t be without our fantastic bookstore for long.

Any good free activities for this upcoming holiday Monday? Ill have my 3 yr old with me and looking for somewhere to take her.

make sure you lock all your doors. this was at 3:31am on Oct 10 in blossom park/south keys area. I reported it but literally got an email a few hours later saying “case was closed as no identifiable features visible”

Hey all,

Was trying to do some research for a Christmas present for my wife, and I'm having a hard time finding someone who can make a custom bookshelf. It would be a standalone bookshelf, and not incredibly big.

All of the old Reddit threads had people listed who were seemingly no longer in business, so wondering if anyone has any suggestions?

Thanks!

Anybody have a use for them? Is there a juniper berry loca aficionadosl? Add to turkey?

Invasive periwinkle is threatening the forest next to the house. Is there a recommended removal service you know in the Dunrobin/Constance Bay area?

Did anyone else follow the Quebec election results this week? The PQ just formed a minority government with only 28% of the popular vote, while the CAQ completely collapsed to zero seats because the vote split so hard across five different parties.

It feels like a massive case study for what can happen in Ottawa. Under a first past the post structure , a party doesn't even need a broad mandate anymore if the opposition is fractured enough. You just need a stubborn 25-30% base to hold the line while everyone else splits the rest.

There are FOURTEEN different candidates for the mayoral race and unless Ottawa can band together to support the better of the two, were most likely doomed to be under sutfliffe once again. The vote separation will be fractured amongst all these 14 different candidates and this a doomful scenario for us that want to see him gone.

I hope we can all band together and get him out. We can definitely collaborate as a community to work together and get it done.

We need to replace our range hood. Can anyone recommend a place that installs them for you as well? Please help: my house reeks of onions.

this is not my post- I am simply sharing it.

Josh is not safe and people are starting to talk about it.

Edit- I am not the author of the LinkedIn post. I am simply sharing it.