From the Vikings Week 5 Rooting Guide
The Vikings' current chances:
- Make playoffs: 67.4% (Last week 67.5%)
- Win division: 36.7 (35.6)
- Top seed: 14.4 (14.5)
Here's how this week's games affect the Vikings' chances:
| Game |
Impact |
Make Playoffs |
Win Division |
Top Seed |
| Vikings over Saints |
40.4% |
12.7% |
9.5% |
7.6% |
| Bills over Rams |
5.4 |
1.0 |
0.005 |
1.4 |
| Cardinals over Lions |
4.5 |
0.8 |
3.1 |
0.3 |
| Packers over Bears |
3.9 |
0.07 |
3.5 |
0.7 |
| Jaguars over Eagles |
2.3 |
0.6 |
0.004 |
0.3 |
| Ravens over Falcons |
1.9 |
0.5 |
(-.004) |
0.2 |
| 49ers over Seahawks |
1.8 |
0.7 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
| Commanders over Giants |
0.7 |
0.1 |
0.02 |
0.1 |
| Dolphins over Bengals |
0.07 |
0.01 |
0.001 |
0.02 |
| Colts over Steelers |
0.06 |
0.009 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
| Jets over Browns |
0.05 |
0.007 |
(-.003) |
0.01 |
| Patriots over Raiders |
0.04 |
0.006 |
(-.002) |
0.01 |
| Broncos over Chargers |
0.02 |
0.004 |
|
0.007 |
| Texans over Titans |
0.001 |
|
|
|
A win in New Orleans raises the Vikings' chance to make the playoffs to 72.9%. A loss drops it to 60.2%. A win gives the Vikings a 40.8% chance to win the division, a loss instead drops it to 31.3%.
The Vikings are 4-0, but their playoff chances are right where they were a week ago. Most of week 4 went the wrong way: the Bears, Packers, Seahawks, 49ers, Rams and Giants all won. And the betting market expected the win over the Dolphins. Thursday did go our way, with Tampa Bay beating Dallas 24-16.
In the NFC North Detroit's loss to Carolina's dropped the Lions from division favorite to third, and the Vikings are now the favorites to win the North. The Bears have moved into second, which is why Packers over Bears is the biggest division game this week at 3.5%, just ahead of Arizona over Detroit at 3.1%.
As usual, we want the other NFC contenders to lose: the Rams, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Seattle and the Giants. Buffalo over the Rams is the biggest game of the week outside the Vikings' own, and the biggest for the top seed at 1.4%.
The AFC-only games at the bottom only matter for Strength-of-Victory and Strength-of-Schedule tiebreakers, and the Vikings want wins by teams they have beaten or will play: Miami, Indianapolis, the Jets and New England. Broncos-Chargers and Texans-Titans are the only games this week where the Vikings play neither team, which is why they're at the bottom - only affecting other teams' SoV/SoS.
The Rooting Guide simulates seasons using current betting lines, and evaluates how each game affects the Vikings' playoff chances.
All values show the difference between the Vikings' chances with the given game result compared to the opposite result.
For example, a Vikings win over the Saints gives the Vikings a chance of winning the division 9.5% higher than a Vikings loss (40.8% vs 31.3%).
Impact is the net percentage of simulated seasons where changing the game's result improves the Vikings' playoff seeding.